本文源引自金融商业作家Lynnley Browning在2024年2月26日的署名文章，采用中英双语排版，由ImmersiveTranslate提供翻译支持。
正文：
For banks, knowing who customers are and will be is increasingly difficult. While two key marketing metrics — share of wallet and customer lifetime value — aim to help financial institutions grasp the Holy Grail, they’re being pressured by radical shifts in the financial services landscape.
对于银行来说，了解客户是谁以及将会是谁变得越来越困难。虽然两个关键的营销指标——钱包份额（SOW）和客户终身价值（CLV）——旨在帮助金融机构抓住圣杯，但它们正面临着金融服务格局彻底转变的压力。
A bank’s most valuable asset is its customers. Yet the majority of financial institutions struggle to understand the products and services their clients need and want — both now and in the future — and to pinpoint prospective customers. While locking down on that Holy Grail has always been critical to marketing, sales, expansion and profitability, the task is now complicated by a complex inflection point — with major consequences for the rapidly evolving financial services industry.
银行最有价值的资产是其客户。然而，大多数金融机构都在努力了解客户现在和未来需要和想要的产品和服务，并确定潜在客户。虽然锁定这一圣杯对于营销、销售、扩张和盈利能力始终至关重要，但现在由于一个复杂的拐点，任务变得更加复杂——这对快速发展的金融服务业产生了重大影响。
What might be called the veil over the grail consists of the convergence of seven new factors that make it both tougher and even more critical for traditional banks to understand their current and future customer bases if they are to survive and thrive. The veil is woven of intertwining threads:
这由七个新因素组成，这些因素使得传统银行要想生存和发展，了解其当前和未来的客户群变得更加困难，甚至更加关键。面纱由交织的线编织而成：
- The rise of nonbank lenders, neo-banks and financial technology companies;
非银行贷款机构、新银行和金融科技公司的崛起； - The growth of new platforms like Amazon Pay, Apple Pay and PayPal;
Amazon Pay、Apple Pay 和 PayPal 等新平台的增长； - The digital shift to mobile and online banking;
向移动和网上银行的数字化转变； - The growth of robo-advisor investing services from firms such as $40 billion startup Betterment to stalwart Fidelity;
从价值 400 亿美元的初创公司 Betterment 到坚定的 Fidelity 等公司，机器人顾问投资服务不断发展； - Regulatory shifts following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March 2023;
2023 年 3 月硅谷银行和 Signature Bank 倒闭后监管发生转变； - Lingering economic uncertainty as inflation slows, wages outpace rising consumer prices and the Federal Reserve weighs interest rate cuts after 11 consecutive hikes;
由于通胀放缓、工资增长超过消费者价格上涨以及美联储在连续 11 次加息后考虑降息，经济不确定性挥之不去； - The growing propensity of consumers to use multiple financial service providers.
消费者越来越倾向于使用多个金融服务提供商。
Banks have long relied on increasingly complex mathematical models to predict the profitability of their clients. But while these two key metrics — the widely used share of wallet, and the newer customer lifetime value (CLV) — are closely related, they present core differences in their assumptions about how to maximize return on customer retention, acquisition and marketing. Add in the 7 factors reshaping the financial landscape, and a major question emerges: Which metric is the most useful?
银行长期以来一直依赖日益复杂的数学模型来预测客户的盈利能力。尽管这两个关键指标——广泛使用的钱包份额和新客户终身价值（CLV）——密切相关，但它们在如何最大限度地提高客户保留、获取和营销回报的假设上存在核心差异。加上重塑金融格局的 7 个因素，一个主要问题就出现了：哪个指标最有用？
Contextualizing Share of Wallet Versus Customer Lifetime Value
钱包份额与客户终身价值的背景分析
Share of wallet refers to the percentage of total spending that a consumer devotes to a particular company. An indicator of brand loyalty, the metric reflects the degree to which a company has reached its target audience and cemented its position in the competitive landscape.
钱包份额是指消费者投入到特定公司的总支出的百分比。作为品牌忠诚度的指标，该指标反映了公司接触目标受众并巩固其在竞争格局中的地位的程度。
The concept took off in 2011, when a novel formula known as the Wallet Allocation Rule emerged. By considering the number of brands (stores, companies) a consumer uses, along with how they rank them, it privileges rank over absolute performance. One real-world application for banks seeking to maximize returns from user acquisition and marketing: The results of customer satisfaction surveys are less important than whether a customer ranks their bank in the top spot.
这一概念于 2011 年兴起，当时出现了一种名为“钱包分配规则”的新颖公式。通过考虑消费者使用的品牌（商店、公司）的数量以及他们如何对它们进行排名，它优先考虑排名而不是绝对表现。银行寻求从用户获取和营销中获得最大回报的一种现实应用程序：客户满意度调查的结果并不比客户是否将其银行排在首位更重要。
Share of wallet focuses primarily on current, not future, clients, and for a reason: Marketing research cited by PwC shows that companies in all industries can generate a 70% return on initiatives that target existing customers and their wallets, vs. the roughly 10% that comes from zeroing in on prospective ones. The flip side of that: It costs six to seven times more to acquire a new customer than it does to retain current customers, according to research by Ali Cudby, a customer-retention researcher and author, cited by Wharton. Boosting retention by just 5% can increase profitability by 25% or more.
钱包份额主要关注当前而非未来的客户，这是有原因的：普华永道引用的营销研究表明，所有行业的公司针对现有客户及其钱包的举措都可以获得 70% 的回报，而其他公司的回报率约为 10% ％来自于瞄准潜在的目标。沃顿商学院援引客户保留研究员兼作家 Ali Cudby 的研究显示，另一方面，获得新客户的成本比保留现有客户的成本高出六到七倍。只需将保留率提高 5%，就能将盈利能力提高 25% 或更多。
The Real Debate: New or Existing?:
真正的争论：新的还是现有的？：
It can cost up to seven times more to acquire a new bank customer than it is to keep the current customers engaged.
获取新银行客户的成本可能比维持现有客户的成本高出七倍。
For banks, that data point is particularly key: Financial institutions typically own just 10% to 20% of a customer’s wallet, according to PwC, with the most successful banks having a hold on at most 60%.
对于银行来说，这个数据点尤其重要：根据普华永道的数据，金融机构通常只持有客户钱包的 10% 到 20%，而最成功的银行最多持有 60%。
According to research cited by Payments Journal, the average American had 5.3 bank accounts in 2019. In reality, many Americans have 30–40 different financial relationships, spanning banks, brokerage accounts, retirement accounts, digital payment apps like Venmo and PayPal, buy-now-pay-later programs, gift cards and personal finance sites like Credit Karma and Mint, says Ron Shevlin, a managing director and chief research officer at financial institutions consulting firm Cornerstone Advisors.
根据 Payments Journal 引用的研究，2019 年美国人平均拥有 5.3 个银行账户。实际上，许多美国人拥有 30-40 种不同的财务关系，涵盖银行、经纪账户、退休账户、Venmo 和 PayPal 等数字支付应用程序、购买-金融机构咨询公司 Cornerstone Advisors 的董事总经理兼首席研究官罗恩·谢夫林 (Ron Shevlin) 表示，“先付款后付款”计划、礼品卡以及 Credit Karma 和 Mint 等个人理财网站。
“Share of wallet is the big bugaboo right now,” he says. “You got to understand your institution’s place in your customer’s financial life, because you’re not the center of it anymore.”
“钱包份额现在是一个大问题，”他说。 “你必须了解你的机构在客户财务生活中的地位，因为你不再是其中的中心。”
Like the financial services industry itself, share of wallet is an evolving concept. Customer mindshare, which McKinsey calls “the new battleground in U.S. retail banking, consists of the customer experience, a bank’s physical footprint, digital sophistication and marketing presence. Those four variables are “an effective predictor of a bank’s ability to acquire new customers and expand share of wallet with existing customers,” McKinsey says.
与金融服务行业本身一样，钱包份额是一个不断发展的概念。麦肯锡将客户心智份额称为“美国零售银行业的新战场”，包括客户体验、银行的实体足迹、数字化复杂程度和营销存在。麦肯锡表示，这四个变量是“银行获取新客户和扩大现有客户钱包份额的能力的有效预测指标”。
In simple terms, (CLV) is the total amount of money that a customer can be expected to spend with a given company over the course of their relationship. Banks aim to develop long-term relationships with clients by offering products and services for every stage of their financial lives, from checking accounts and car loans to mortgages and estate planning services.
简单来说，(CLV) 是客户在与特定公司的关系过程中预期花费的总金额。银行旨在通过为客户财务生活的各个阶段提供从支票账户和汽车贷款到抵押贷款和遗产规划服务的产品和服务，与客户建立长期关系。
“You cannot not get to an accurate lifetime value calculation if you do not have a good perspective on share of wallet.”
— Ron Shevlin
“如果你对钱包份额没有良好的认识，你就无法获得准确的终生价值计算。” — 罗恩·谢夫林
A customer with a higher CLV score will produce more revenue and be more profitable for a bank — if the institution can nail that client’s additional business through targeted marketing that cross-sells and upsells products and services.
如果银行能够通过交叉销售和追加销售产品和服务的定向营销来确定该客户的额外业务，那么 CLV 分数较高的客户将为银行带来更多收入和更多利润。
The CLV concept, which emerged in the late 1980s amid the rise of statistical models dubbed “Buy Till You Die,” got a major overhaul in 2005 in a widely read academic paper by three marketing scholars at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and London Business School. Titled “Counting Your Customers the Easy Way: An Alternative to the Pareto/NBD Model,” the influential paper took what had been theoretical academic concept and tweaked it to become a simplified model that was quickly adopted across many industries.
CLV 概念出现于 20 世纪 80 年代末，伴随着被称为“Buy Till You Die”的统计模型的兴起，2005 年，宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院的三位营销学者在一篇广泛阅读的学术论文中对 CLV 概念进行了重大修改。伦敦商学院。这篇有影响力的论文题为“用简单的方法计算你的客户：帕累托/NBD 模型的替代方案”，它采用了理论学术概念，并将其调整为一个简化的模型，并迅速在许多行业中采用。
Its core insight: that customers can stop being customers — become “inactive” — immediately after they make a purchase, rather than at any point in time. That thesis is why banks now spend significant dollars to hit up customers with offers of, say, a new car loan just as their old one is paid of, rather than during random time periods corresponding to other factors like seasonal discounts, tax credits or warm-weather driving.
其核心见解是：客户可以在购买后立即不再是客户，变得“不活跃”，而不是在任何时间点。这就是为什么银行现在花费大量资金来吸引客户，例如在旧车还清后提供新车贷款，而不是在与季节性折扣、税收抵免或温暖等其他因素相对应的随机时间段内提供贷款。 – 天气驾驶。
No Silver Bullet Answer
没有灵丹妙药的答案
Amid the shifts, there’s no silver-bullet answer on whether CLV or wallet share is the single most important metric for banks.
在这些转变中，对于 CLV 还是钱包份额是否是银行最重要的单一指标，目前还没有一个灵丹妙药的答案。
“CLV for sure. Never a doubt about it,” says Peter Fader, a marketing professor at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and a co-author of the 2005 paper that created a simplified CLV formula. The reason: CLV zeroes in on a single behavior — the point at which a consumer “drops out” — rather trying to surface multiple behaviors that push someone to become inactive over a broader period of time.
“当然是CLV。毫无疑问，”宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院市场营销学教授彼得·法德 (Peter Fader) 说道，他也是 2005 年创建简化 CLV 公式的论文的合著者。原因是：CLV 专注于单一行为（消费者“退出”的点），而不是试图揭示促使某人在更广泛的时间内变得不活跃的多种行为。
But Shevlin says CLV is not that cut and dried — especially given that banks have a hard time determining just where customers are putting their non-bank dollars.
但谢夫林表示，CLV 并不是那么一成不变，尤其是考虑到银行很难确定客户将非银行资金放在哪里。
“You cannot not get to an accurate lifetime value calculation if you do not have a good perspective on share of wallet,” he says.
“如果你对钱包份额没有良好的认识，你就无法获得准确的终身价值计算，”他说。
At the same time, he adds, as banks have increased their focus on share of wallet over the past 5–10 years, they’ve “come to really begin to understand this fantasy of having customers consolidate all their accounts. I think they finally recognize that’s not going to happen, especially with today’s technology and capabilities” that let consumers send money through Venmo and open a Roth IRA outside their bank.
与此同时，他补充道，随着银行在过去 5-10 年里更加关注钱包份额，他们“开始真正开始理解让客户整合所有账户的幻想”。我认为他们最终认识到这种情况不会发生，尤其是在当今的技术和能力下”，消费者可以通过 Venmo 汇款并在银行外开设 Roth IRA。
“I don’t think it’s either-or,” says Shevlin of the two metrics. “You have to look at both.”
“我不认为这是非此即彼的，”谢夫林在谈到这两个指标时说道。 “你必须两者都看。”
